| Global forecast |
| | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | | | | | | | | | | |
| World (market exchange rates) | 3.0 | 2.3 | -3.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| US | 2.9 | 2.3 | -2.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| OECD | 2.3 | 1.6 | -4.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 0.6 | -0.4 | -4.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Euro area | 1.8 | 1.6 | -6.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| China | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| World (PPP exchange rates)a | 3.6 | 2.7 | -2.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| OECD | 2.4 | 1.5 | -4.0 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Non-OECD | 4.6 | 3.6 | -1.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| World trade growth (%) | | | | | | | | | | |
| Goods | 3.9 | 0.2 | -5.0 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 |
| Consumer price inflation (%; av) | | | | | | | | | | |
| Worldb | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| US | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| OECD | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3.6 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Euro area | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| China | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Export price inflation (%) | | | | | | | | | | |
| Manufactures (US$) | 5.1 | -1.4 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
| Commodity prices | | | | | | | | | | |
| Oil (US$/barrel; Brent) | 71.1 | 64.0 | 42.3 | 70.4 | 99.6 | 84.3 | 80.4 | 76.4 | 72.4 | 68.4 |
| % change | 30.7 | -9.9 | -33.9 | 66.5 | 41.5 | -15.5 | -4.5 | -5.0 | -5.2 | -5.5 |
| World non-oil commodity prices (US$, % change) | 1.8 | -6.3 | 2.9 | 37.9 | 15.0 | -8.9 | -3.8 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| Food, feedstuffs & beverages | 1.6 | -4.3 | 7.7 | 36.1 | 22.9 | -8.6 | -7.0 | -2.1 | -2.2 | -2.2 |
| Industrial raw materials | 2.2 | -8.6 | -3.2 | 40.4 | 4.2 | -9.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Main policy interest rates (%, end-period) | | | | | | | | | | |
| Federal Reserve | 2.38 | 1.63 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 4.38 | 4.88 | 4.13 | 3.13 | 2.38 | 2.38 |
| Bank of Japan | -0.07 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| European Central Bank | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Bank of England | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 3.50 | 4.25 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Exchange rates (av) | | | | | | | | | | |
| US$ effective (2010=100) | 113.2 | 116.4 | 118.0 | 115.6 | 125.8 | 129.8 | 124.3 | 121.8 | 120.4 | 119.9 |
| ¥:US$ | 110.4 | 109.0 | 106.8 | 109.8 | 132.2 | 128.2 | 115.4 | 112.8 | 110.8 | 108.8 |
| US$:€ | 1.18 | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| Rmb:US$ | 6.62 | 6.91 | 6.90 | 6.45 | 6.75 | 7.11 | 6.66 | 6.60 | 6.54 | 6.48 |
| US$:£ | 1.34 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.38 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 1.24 | 1.31 | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| ¥:€ | 130.5 | 122.1 | 121.8 | 129.9 | 139.3 | 133.9 | 123.5 | 123.5 | 125.7 | 126.2 |
| £:€ | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| Exchange rates (end-period) | | | | | | | | | | |
| ¥:US$ | 109.7 | 108.7 | 103.2 | 115.2 | 139.8 | 119.2 | 113.8 | 111.8 | 109.8 | 108.0 |
| Rmb:US$ | 6.85 | 7.01 | 6.55 | 6.37 | 7.20 | 6.89 | 6.57 | 6.57 | 6.52 | 6.46 |
| US$:€ | 1.15 | 1.12 | 1.23 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.12 | 1.16 | 1.16 |
a The 125 countries for which EIU publishes five-year forecasts. b Excludes Venezuela. |
Source: EIU. |
发表于 2022-12-29 11:58:27